002 - How Moneyball is dishonest about the success of the 2002 Oakland Athletics
Coming soon…
001 - Toronto Blue Jays…Dark Horse Wild Card Candidate?
Looking at the American League as a whole, it seems fairly likely that the Yankees, Twins and Astros will be taking home division crowns in this shortened 2020 season (I refuse to believe it will be canceled). Anything could happen, of course. The Indians could sneak past the Twins and it wouldn’t exactly shock the world. In theory, the Rays or Rangers could finish ahead of the Yankees or Astros, respectively (although I highly, highly doubt it). This leaves the Rays as the clear favorites for the Wild Card 1 slot (this is all operating under the assumption that Rob Manfred doesn’t try to expand the playoff format this season). But after the Rays, the projected favorite for the Wild Card 2 is kind of wide open. So, could the Toronto Blue Jays sneak into the playoffs as a Wild Card?
They do have an impressive core of young talent, three of which are the sons of notable former major leaguers. Vladdy Jr. and Cavan Biggio are the sons of Hall of Famers Vladimir Guerrero and Craig Biggio. But the player who impressed most out of Toronto last year was Bo Bichette, whose father Dante Bichette placed second in the NL MVP voting in 1995 and put together a slew of productive offensive seasons in Colorado in the ‘90s. Bo compiled 29 extra base hits in just over 200 plate appearances last season with a .930 OPS. He’s the Fernando Tatis Jr. of the American League. He is the answer at shortstop for years to come in Toronto. I fully expect him to be a top offensive performer in 2020. I am very high on him. Cavan Biggio put up productive numbers at the plate last year in his first stint in the majors with some flexibility in the field. Vladdy Jr. was somehow actually a disappointment. Many, including myself, expected him to come up and be a force at the plate. He concluded the 2019 season with a .772 OPS. That’s not bad for his first taste of the majors, but the expectations were much higher than that. He still profiles as a difference-maker, and I expect him to take a big step forward in 2020.
Their catching situation is also built on young guys with lots of potential. Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire are both former highly rated prospects who have shown promise in the majors. McGuire particularly looked good last year, despite his embarrassing arrest a few months ago. Travis Shaw is an interesting reclamation project after his shockingly terrible 2019. Their outfield doesn’t impress me. As far as position players go, they have a lot of young pieces with high ceilings, but they really do have a lot of holes and question marks.
They made some interesting moves this winter for their rotation with the signings of Hyun-Jin Ryu and Tanner Roark and the trade for Chase Anderson. I’m not a big fan of Ryu, but the fact of the matter is he led the National League in ERA last season and placed second in the Cy Young voting behind my favorite pitcher, Jacob deGrom. Roark has consistently stayed healthy and put up half-decent results over the past several years. Anderson has started at least 21 games with an ERA of 4.39 or better each of the past six seasons. 2017 was a very productive year for him with his sub-3.00 ERA. As far as back-end starters go, you can do a lot worse than Roark and Anderson. They recently acquired Anthony Kay in the Marcus Stroman trade, and Kay could be a contributor in the rotation at some point this season. They have enough pieces here to at least be interesting.
As far as the bullpen goes, it looks like a mess to me. It’s wide open. Ken Giles was actually incredibly good last season, but after that I see a lot of question marks. Several people are going to have to step forward in a big way if they want to compete in 2020.
After scanning through their roster, I’m a little less impressed than I was when I started writing this, but they still have a lot of very young, impressive players that could carry them if things break right, especially in a shortened season. In the end, I see teams like the Rangers and Indians (and maybe even the Angels if they can ever get a pitching staff) as much stronger competitors for the Wild Card 2 slot, but the Blue Jays aren’t completely out of the picture. I think labeling them as a Dark Horse is a very apt description of their chances. By season’s end, whenever that may be, I would not be surprised to see them clocking in around 78 wins (or whatever the shortened season equivalent is to that), but I also wouldn’t be shocked to see Bo Bichette and Vladdy Jr. and perhaps a surprisingly competent rotation pushing them towards 90 wins and a ticket to Tropicana Field for the Wild Card game.
Here are some links if you want to do your own research into the 2020 Toronto Blue Jays: Active Roster; Rotochamp Projected Roster; MLB.com Projected Roster.